Back to harvest record corn and soybean crops, according to the latest survey of growers conducted by Farm Futures magazine.
Corn yields could reach a record 167.4 bushels per acre nationwide, resulting in a mammoth crop of 13.47 billion bushels. By contrast, farmers grew 13.15 billion bushels of corn in 2009, according to USDA, on yields of 165.2 bushels per acre nationwide, which were both all-time highs.
On August 12, USDA releases its first estimate of 2010 corn and soybean production with data based on actual in-field surveys. Its previous forecasts have been based on statistical calculations.
For soybeans, Farm Futures puts production at 3.41 billion bushels, based on yields of 43.8 bushels per acre nationwide. Farmers harvested 3.36 billion bushels of beans in 2009, with record yields of 44 bushels per acre nationwide.
“Our initial survey of the crop is just a snapshot of where corn and soybeans are at right now,” says Farm Futures Senior Editor Bryce Knorr, who conducted the research. “But there’s evidence estimates of both crops could get bigger if growing conditions remain favorable. Corn acreage could be greater than reported June 30, though USDA likely won’t make any adjustments now. And both corn and soybean yields could increase as well, as long as this warmer than normal summer gives plants time to fill.”
Farm Futures Market Analyst Arlan Suderman notes that this year’s weather has been anything but normal.
“Once again, we find that problem areas of the Midwest are being offset by garden spots where crops look extremely good,” says Suderman, “with northern areas of the belt making that claim this year. Caution is advised, though, based on a study of similar warm, humid years that found that final yields tended to disappoint, especially for corn. The data suggest that we will see good crops if the rains continue through August, but traders still want to see that confirmed at harvest before banking on record corn yields.”
Most years’ big crops bring lower prices. But the good news for farmers this year is that strong demand could keep prices favorable.
“These yield estimates would have been bearish under normal conditions,” said Suderman, “but strengthening demand makes large crops essential this year.”
Farm Futures queried more than 550 farmers in a nationwide e-mail survey from July 23 to August 4. Knorr and Suderman will discuss the survey and its implications for prices in light of the historic rally in wheat in their online video conversation, The Buzz, available today on www.FarmFutures.com on the website’s “News” page.